Germany is bracing for a pivotal state election in Saxony-Anhalt. Political observers are keenly watching the ascent of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), capitalizing on the region’s perceived economic challenges. Domestic intelligence agencies have classified the AfD’s state branch as “confirmed right-wing extremist.” Opinion polls suggest the party could emerge as a clear winner.
The AfD previously secured around 20% of the vote in 2021. Consequently, it became the largest opposition force. Currently, a coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Social Democrats (SPD), and Free Democrats (FDP) governs the state, led by Sven Schulze (CDU). The AfD actively campaigns on claims that Saxony-Anhalt has fallen behind both socially and economically.
However, a closer examination of the data offers a more nuanced picture. Saxony-Anhalt’s unemployment rate indeed exceeds the national average. Moreover, median earnings for full-time employees remain lower across the state. Out of approximately 2.1 million residents, nearly 800,000 hold jobs with social security contributions.
The chemical industry traditionally provides significant employment. This sector, particularly in the “chemical triangle” around Leuna, Merseburg, and Bitterfeld-Wolfen, consistently ranks among the most productive. Machinery and plant engineering firms also play a vital manufacturing role. Many of these companies supply the automotive industry, which currently faces its own struggles.
Furthermore, retail, transport, and hospitality sectors contribute substantially. They account for about one-fifth of all jobs. Notably, tourism drives many positions, with destinations like the Harz Mountains, Luther cities of Wittenberg and Eisleben, and UNESCO World Heritage site Quedlinburg attracting visitors.
Saxony-Anhalt’s overall economic output per capita stands at roughly three-quarters of the national average. This makes it one of Germany’s economically weaker states. Its economy has also generally grown more slowly in recent years. A higher proportion of pensioners in Saxony-Anhalt contributes partly to this lower per capita output. Meanwhile, many eastern pensioners rely solely on state pensions, unlike some in the West who receive additional company or private retirement income.
The AfD has also made immigration a central campaign theme. They warn against “too much immigration” and “foreign influence.” This message resonates despite Saxony-Anhalt having relatively few non-Germans compared to other states. In fact, migration figures show the state has gained population recently. Since 2016, more non-Germans have moved in than left. For the past six years, the net migration balance for German citizens has also remained positive.
By the end of 2025, foreign nationals comprised approximately 9% of Saxony-Anhalt’s population. This figure is roughly half the share seen in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. Furthermore, the claim that “foreigners are living off taxpayers” appears misleading. Saxony-Anhalt shows a comparatively low proportion of foreign nationals among potential welfare benefit recipients, such as basic income support.
Ultimately, the political and economic realities diverge from the bleak outlook painted by extremist parties like the AfD. Nevertheless, a clear trend emerges: support for radical parties is deepening. Mainstream parties, particularly the CDU and SPD, are steadily losing ground. The CDU struggles to maintain its broad appeal, while the SPD risks falling below the 5% threshold in some state parliaments. This shift underscores the persistent nature of economic challenges and political polarization in the region.
